Simulación basada en el método de Montecarlo para estimar la probabilidad del suceso pedido en el Desafío Matemático "Apuesta arriesgada" propuesto por el diario El País:
http://www.elpais.com/videos/sociedad/Apuesta/arriesgada/elpepusoc/20111006elpepusoc_1/Ves/
Solución expuesta en el diario El País:
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/sociedad/elpepusoc/20111011elpepusoc_10/Tes
A player owns 1000€ and he will take part in a game with the target of leaving with exactly 5000 €.
In each step of the game he bets 1000 € or the available and neccesary quantity (only multiples of 1000 are allowed) in order to achive his goal.
Each time he bets there are two possible results: he may loose the bet or he will get the same quantity (if he bets 1000 € his possible results are loosing 1000 € or winning 1000€). If in some part of the game he owns 4000 € he only will bet 1000 €, because that is enough to win another 1000 € and leave the game with 5000 €. Each time he bets he has probability 1/2 of winning the same quantity and 1/2 of loosing the betted quantity.
Find the probability of achiving the proposed objective wich is leaving with 5000 €.
